- 전일 2~3%의 상승을 해서인지 S&P와 나스닥 Futures는 -1.3~1.8%대의 하락을 보이고 있습니다.
- VOX는 40.99 (30일후에 40%변동) 으로 아직은 높게 형성이 되어 있습니다.
계속 하락이 되서인지+8.55%의 상승률을 보이고 있습니다.
- 유가는 지하 3층까지 내려갔습니다.
$19.72로 다시한번 Historical 저점을 조이고 있습니다.
- 금값은 하락 이지만 아직 최고 수준입니다 .
촌철살인
- WTI가가 역사적인 최저치입니다. Leverage는 지양하고 , USO같은 1X Bull ETF에 장기 투자하는것을 제안합니다.
- 다우 지수가 어느새 24,000입니다.
저점인 18,000대비는 33%가량 오른 수치이고 , 2/20일 이전 29,000대비해서는 아직 20%이상 오를 여지가 있습니다.
-> 주의 할점은 지금 시점이 갈림길일수 있습니다.
코로나 이슈로 인한 단기적인 V자로 손실의 반정도는 단기간 회복되었는데,
나머지 반도 단기간에 회복 할수 있을지는 미지수입니다. 아직도 코로나 이슈 중으로 좋을 변수는 없는 상황이라 ,
이슈가 잠잠해질때까지는 횡보가 될수 있습니다. 아니면 20,000정도에서 하향 횡보 상태가 될수도 있습니다.
이럴때는 Keeping해서 현금으로 가지고 있거나 , Amazon같은 개별 종목을 중장기 투자하는것도 바람직해보입니다.
2. 주요뉴스
오일의 급락, IEA (Internantional Energy Agnecy에서 큰폭의 수요 예측 @investing.com
Investing.com - Global oil demand is likely to drop by a record 9.3 million barrels per day in 2020 as the Covid-19 pandemic brings mobility - and consequently fuel demand - almost to a halt, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday.
Demand in April is estimated to be 29 million barrels a day lower than a year ago, down to a level last seen in 1995, the agency added in its latest monthly Oil Market Report, while demand in the second quarter of this year is expected to be 23.1 million barrels a day below year-ago levels.
U.S. crude oil prices fell below the $20 a barrel level in response, while Brent futures, the international benchmark, fell back below $30. At 4:20 AM ET (0820 GMT),U.S. crudefutures traded 3.4% lower at $19.43 a barrel, while the Brentcontract fell 5% to $28.12.
However, the 2020 low of $19.27 a barrel for WTI held, while Brent remains comfortably above its $21.65 low for the year.
The recovery in demand in the second half of 2020 will be gradual, the IEA said, with demand in December still down 2.7 million barrels a day from 2019 levels.
OPEC과 러시아는 미국을 포함하여 전체 오일 생산량을 20% 감축하는데 동의를 했다. 코로나에 의한 수요감소에 따른 조치이다. 하루 970만배럴을 5,6월에 걸쳐 줄이는 수준이다. 트럼프 미국 대통령이 압력을 행사한지 4일 이후에 협의된것이다.
BAKU/DUBAI/LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC and allies led by Russia agreed on Sunday to a record cut in output to prop up oil prices amid the coronavirus pandemic and said they had an unprecedented deal with fellow oil nations, including the United States, to curb global oil supply by 20%. Measures to slow the spread of the coronavirus have destroyed demand for fuel and driven down oil prices, straining budgets of oil producers and hammering the U.S. shale industry, which is more vulnerable to low prices due to its higher costs. The group, known as OPEC+, said it had agreed to reduce output by 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) for May and June, after four days of talks and following pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to arrest the price decline. The biggest oil cut ever is more than four times deeper than the previous record cut in 2008. Producers will slowly relax curbs after June, although reductions in production will stay in place until April 2022. "The big Oil Deal with OPEC+ is done. This will save hundreds of thousands of energy jobs in the United States," Trump wrote on Twitter, thanking Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi King Salman for pushing the deal through. "I just spoke to them... Great deal for all," Trump said. OPEC+ said in a draft statement seen by Reuters it expected total global oil cuts to amount to more than 20 million bpd, or 20 percent of global supply, effective May 1. Three OPEC+ sources said effective oil output cuts would include contributions from non-members, steeper voluntary cuts by some OPEC+ members and strategic stocks purchases by the world's largest consumers. The sources said non-members Brazil, Canada, Norway and the United States would contribute 3.7 million bpd. Gulf members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will be cutting output more steeply than agreed, OPEC+ sources said. The sources said the International Energy Agency (IEA) would announce purchases into stocks by its members on Monday to the tune of 3 million bpd in the next couple of months. The IEA did not immediately respond to a request for comment. SEVERE DISTRESS Trump had threatened OPEC leader Saudi Arabia with oil tariffs and other measures if it did not fix the market's oversupply problem as low prices have put the U.S. oil industry, the world's largest, in severe distress. Canada and Norway had signalled a willingness to cut and the United States, where legislation makes it hard to act in tandem with cartels such as OPEC, said its output would fall steeply by itself this year because of low prices. The OPEC+ deal had been delayed since Thursday, however, after Mexico, worried about derailing its plans to revive heavily indebted state oil company Pemex, balked at the production cuts it was asked to make. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Friday that Trump had offered to make extra U.S. cuts on his behalf, an unusual offer by the U.S. leader, who has long railed against OPEC. Trump said Washington would help Mexico by picking up "some of the slack" and being reimbursed later. He did not say how that would work. A previous agreement by OPEC+ to cut production this year fell apart because of a dispute between Russia and Saudi Arabia, triggering a price war that brought a flood of supply just as demand for fuel was crushed by the coronavirus pandemic. Global oil demand is estimated to have fallen by a third as more than 3 billion people are locked down in their homes due to the outbreak. An 10-15% cut in supply might not be enough to arrest the price decline, banks Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and UBS predicted last week, saying Brent prices would fall back to $20 per barrel from $32 at the moment and $70 at the start of the year.
Crude는 날것의, 자연그대로의라는 뜻으로 Crude oil은 정제되지 않은 Oil을 의미한다.
Crude oil은 Hydorcarbon 혼합물 형태로 액체상태로 지하에 존재한다. Petroleum products는 crude oil을 가공하고 정제하여 상품으로 만든것으로 액상 Hydrocarbon을 Gas Processing과정을 거쳐 추출한뒤 석유제품으로 판매 하는것이다. Petroleum은 crude oil과 Petroleum products를 둘다 포함하는 광의의 개념이다.
원래 방부용이나 약으로 쓰였으나 아브라함 게스너라는 사람에 의해 한순간에 상품화가 되었다.
2. 생산량
2019년 기준 일간 생산량은 8000만배럴 정도이다.
*배럴(Barrel) 뜻: Barrel은 부피를 나타내는단위로 나무통에서 유래를 하고 bbl은 석유용 배럴에 한정해서 쓰인다.
일반적 석유용 배럴은 158.987리터를 말하고 ,일반적인 배럴은 119.240리터를 의미한다.
*석유용 배럴(bbl) 뜻: bbl은 1860년 석유산업 시작되면서 표준용기가 없었다.
1870년에 42갤런 (1갤런 = 3.55리터)를 표준으로 적용하였으나, 40갤런이 일반적으로 많은 산업
에 적용이 되었고 남은 2갤런은 증반이나 이동중 유실로 인정이 되었다. 그래서, 석유용 배럴은
42갤런이 이동중의 석유제품에 단위로 사용되게 되었다.
bbl은 파란색통 (Blue barrel)의 약자로 당시 사용된 42갤런통이 bbl의 어원이 된다.
국가별 생산량을 보면 미국이 1위로 19%, Saudi가 15%로 2위, 러시아가 13.5%로 3위, 이라크,이란 ,중국은 5%전후로 4~6위를 점하고 있다. 미국, Saudi , 러시아를 합치면 47.5%로 세계생산량의 절반정도가 된다.
미국의 Shale혁명으로 2014년이후 Oil생산량이 급격히 늘고 있는것을 볼수있다.
3. 유가 Trend
1985년 부터 오늘까지 유가를 조회해보면 현재의 유가가 1990년 수준임을 알수 있다.
인플레이션을 고려한다면 상당히 낮은수준이다.
4. 제조원가
현재 수준은 중동에서도 적자 수준이다. 땅만파면 나오기때문에 유가가 $30달러 미만만 안가면 흑자 기조를 유지할수 있는 중동이기에 금번 코로나를 거치며 떨어진 유가 수준은 역사에 남을 수준이다.
러시아는 $50, 미국에 Shale gas는 $65수준이다. 결국 사우디와 러시아의 대결에서 사우디는 러시아 대비 여유가 있는 편이며 , 반대로 단가가 높은 미국의 Shale업계는 OPEC+ 협의가 제대로 안된다면 줄도산할 가능성이 높다.
Opec+ Alliance는 하루에 1000만배럴의 생산 감축하는걸로 협의가 되었다. 이는 코로나 시즌의 수요의 1/3정도에 해당한다. 얼마전에 트럼프가 트윗팅하면서 시작된 유가 협의가 마무리가 된것이다. 유가는 오히려 떨어졌다.
유가의 하루 변동량을 보더라도 $22.6~28.33 으로 무려 $5.7 정도가 움직였고 변동폭은 23%이다.
장시작전만해더 +5%이상 상승했으나 현재는 -7%이상 떨어졌다. 감산협의가 기대치에 미쳤음에도 협의 소식에 떨어진것이다.
' 기대에 사고 뉴스에 팔아라' 는 말을 되 새겨 보다.
Investing.com - Oil prices swung wildly -- rising 12% in early trade, then settling 9% lower, before paring losses in post-settlement trade -- as the OPEC+ alliance reportedly agreed to a 10 million-barrel-per-day output cut by June that would still cover only a third of the demand estimated lost to the coronavirus pandemic.
West Texas Intermediate, the New York-traded benchmark for U.S. crude, was down $1.84, or 7.3%, at $23.25 by 4:45 PM ET (20:45 GMT). WTI had settled at $22.76 earlier, down $2.33, or 9%, on the day. The session high was $28.33.
Brent, the London-traded global benchmark for crude, was off 96 cents, or 2.9%, at $31.88. It finished the official trading session at $36.68, down $1.36, or 4.1%. Brent’s peak for the day was $36.38.
Oil pulled back some losses after The Wall Street Journal reported that the OPEC+ alliance will cut 10 million barrels per day of production by June, with Saudi Arabia and Russia contributing more than half of that.
Riyadh will cut 3.3 million bpd and Russia 2 million bpd, the Journal said.
Analysts said the demand loss from Covid-19 was between 20 million and 30 million bpd.
With the coronavirus pandemic reducing the big fanfare of the typical OPEC meeting in Vienna to a mere video hook-up, oil ministers from the Saudi-led cartel had to be content with a virtual meeting with their Russian and other allies.
That also complicated the job of reporters, who instead of hogging the stairwell of the OPEC building in the Austrian capital to gang-press delegates coming out of the meeting room, had to communicate electronically with them and other sources to know what was going on.
Without an official communique or news conference, the reporting that emerged was as mixed as one could imagine, sending traders in all directions.
As though things weren’t complicated enough, there were reports late in the day that Mexico, a smaller rival to the U.S.-sanctioned Venezuela but a significant oil producer, nevertheless, opposed any cuts to its already dwindling production.
Mexico’s state oil company Pemex was reported to be sticking to plans to boost production, and doubling the number of its newly-drilled wells this year to 423, amid consistent declines in its oil production over the years.
“There are just so many conflicting versions coming out of today’s meeting that it’s not surprising at all that we’re back in the negative after jumping 12% earlier,” said Tariq Zahir at the oil-focused Tyche Capital Advisors in New York.
OPEC+는 사우디와 러시아의 딜로 1000만배럴의 생산량을 줄이기로 협의를 했다. 그러나 ,미국의 Shale업계는 생산량은 변동이 없고 금융권에서는 지원을 하려 준비중이란 뉴스다. 결국 오일 전쟁의 승자는 미국이 될거 같다는 말임.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Major U.S. lenders are preparing to become operators of oil and gas fields across the country for the first time in a generation to avoid losses on loans to energy companies that may go bankrupt, sources aware of the plans told Reuters.
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) & Co,Wells Fargo(NYSE:WFC) & Co, Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) andCitigroupInc (NYSE:C) are each in the process of setting up independent companies to own oil and gas assets, said three people who were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. The banks are also looking to hire executives with relevant expertise to manage them, the sources said.
The banks did not provide comment in time for publication.
Energy companies are suffering through a plunge in oil prices caused by the coronavirus pandemic and a supply glut, with crude prices down more than 60% this year.
Although oil prices may gain support from a potential agreement Thursday between Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut production, few believe the curtailment can offset a 30% drop in global fuel demand, as the coronavirus has grounded aircraft, reduced vehicle use and curbed economic activity more broadly.
Oil and gas companies working in shale basins from Texas to Wyoming are saddled with debt.
The industry is estimated to owe more than $200 billion to lenders through loans backed by oil and gas reserves. As revenue has plummeted and assets have declined in value, some companies are saying they may be unable to repay.
Whiting Petroleum Corp became the first producer to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on April 1. Others, including Chesapeake Energy Corp (NYSE:CHK),Denbury Resources Inc(NYSE:DNR) and Callon Petroleum Co, have also hired debt advisers.
If banks do not retain bankrupt assets, they might be forced to sell them for pennies on the dollar at current prices. The companies they are setting up could manage oil and gas assets until conditions improve enough to sell at a meaningful value.
Big banks will need to get regulatory waivers to execute their plans, because of limitations on their involvement with physical commodities, sources said.
Banks are hoping their planned ownership time frame of a year or so will pass a Federal Reserve requirement that they do not plan to hold assets for a long time. Because lenders would be stepping in to support part of the economy that is important to any potential rebound, and which has not gotten direct bailouts from the federal government, that might help applications, too.
For now, the banks are establishing holding companies that can sit above limited liability companies (LLCs) containing seized assets. The LLCs would be owned proportionally by banks participating in the original secured loan.
To run the oil-and-gas operations, banks might hire former industry executives or specialty firms that have done so for private equity, sources said. Houston-based EnerVest Operating LLC would be among the most likely operators, sources said.
"We regularly look for opportunities to operate on behalf of other entities, that is no different in this market," said EnerVest Operating's chief executive, Alex Zazzi.
GETTING ASSERTIVE
U.S. banks have not done anything like this since the late-1980s, when another oil-price rout bankrupted a bunch of energy companies. More recently, they have relied on restructuring processes that prioritize them as secured creditors and leave bondholders to seek control in lieu of payment.
But banks are becoming more assertive because of the coronavirus recession and balance sheet vulnerabilities that have developed in recent years.
U.S. oil and gas producers have increasingly relied on banks for cash over the past year, as debt or equity options dried up. Lenders have been conservative in valuing hydrocarbons used as collateral, but recent restructurings have left them spooked.
Alta Mesa Resources' bankruptcy will likely provide banks with less than two-thirds of their money, while Sanchez Energy's could leave them with nothing.
The structures banks are setting up will take a few months to establish, sources said. That gives producers until the fall - the next time banks will evaluate the collateral behind energy loans - to get their houses in order.
After several years of on-and-off issues with energy borrowers, lenders have little choice but to take more dramatic steps, said Buddy Clark, a restructuring partner at law firm Haynes and Boone.
"Banks can now believably wield the threat that they will foreclose on the company and its properties if they don't pay their loan back," he said.
Among the dead Japanese on March 10 were six of Nihei's close friends. They'd been playing together in the late afternoon of March 9.
"We were playing outside until dusk. We were playing war role play games," she recalled. "My mom called out that dinner was ready, and we promised we would meet to play again the next day."
Tokyo residents who lost their homes as a result of the US bombing air raid "Operation Meetinghouse" conducted on March 10, 1945. That air raid was later estimated to be the deadlist in history.
That summer of 1945 was tough for Nihei. She and her family -- all of whom survived the March 10 raid -- moved from relative to relative, or other temporary accommodation.
Food was short and Nihei found the powdered acorns mixed with water and grains that were available to eat difficult to stomach.
That August, it was announced that, for the first time, Emperor Hirohito would speak directly to the Japanese people.Nihei's family gathered around a radio to hearhisvoice.
I didn't care if we won or lost as long as there were no fire raids.
Haruyo Nihei
B-29s had struck devastating blows on Hiroshima and Nagaski, this time using atomic bombs, the only time nuclear weapons had been used in battle.
Hirohito never used the words "surrender" or "defeat" but said "the enemy has begun to employ a new and most cruel bomb" and Japan would need to accept its enemies' demands to save the country.
Nihei didn't care about Japan's defeat nor did she know much about the new bombs that forced it.
"I didn't care if we won or lost as long as there were no fire raids -- I was 9 years old -- it didn't matter for me either way," she said.
to remember the past
In a quiet corner of Tokyo's Koto ward a two-story building that has the air of a residential home in fact houses the Tokyo Air Raids Center for War Damages.
Since a group of air raid survivors bandied together to crowdfund its opening in 2002, it has been preserving their memories and also remembering that Japanese air strikes inflicted severe damage on Chinese civilians in Chongqing, killing 32,000 people between February 1938 and August 1943.And that horrible airstrikes continue to this day in places like Syria and Yemen.
Katsumoto Saotome, the founder of the Tokyo Air Raids Center, had pushed for there to be a government-funded state museum dedicated to the raids. Hopes for this were dashed in 2010, when Tokyo's municipal government told Saotome there was no public funding available.
Instead, in that year, the Tokyo government began compiling a list of victims. It established a small memorial in the corner of Yokoamicho Park with their names, next to a charnel house with the ashes of Tokyo fire raid victims and those who died in the Great Kanto earthquake of 1923.
But these small gestures of commemoration are not enough for survivors of the air raids.
Withover 80% of Japaneseborn after the war, some fear that younger generations are losing touch with that aspect of the past.
잘 알려진 말이지만 인도는 세계에서 스모그가 가장 심한 곳이다. 최근 코로나로인해 자가격리등이 늘고 Shut down이 전국적으로 시행된 영향으로 미세먼지 수준은 PM10하로 떨어지고 무려 160Km떨어진 희말리아산맥이 보인다는 기사.
지국의 자정작용인가 ? 다시한번 생각하게한다.
(CNN) —People in the northern Indian state of Punjab are reacting with awe at the sight of theHimalayanmountain range, which is now visible from more than 100 miles away due to the reduction in air pollution caused by thecountry's coronavirus lockdown.
Indians in the city of Jalandhar and the surrounding area have posted photos online of the views from their homes, with some saying they haven't seen the peaks of the Himalayas for decades.
"For the first time in almost 30 years (I) could clearly see the Himalayas due to India's lockdown clearing air pollution. Just amazing," Manjit Kang wrote.
The phenomenon is made possible by a dramatic improvement in air quality in recent weeks, after industries shut down, cars came off the road and airlines canceled flights in response to thecoronavirus pandemic.
Delhi saw up to a 44% reduction in PM10 air pollution levels on the first day of its restrictions, India's Central Pollution Control Boardfound. The PM10 standard measures airborne particulates 10 micrometers or smaller in diameter.
The report said that, in total, 85 cities across India saw less air pollution in the first week of the nationwide lockdown.
Meanwhile the air quality in Jalandhar, which sits more than 100 miles from the Himalayas, has been measured as "good" on the country's nationalindexfor 16 of the 17 days since the nationwide lockdown was announced.
By contrast, the same 17-day period last year failed to register a single day of "good" air quality -- and in the first 17 days of March this year, only three days saw "good" air quality.
The period has therefore marked an unintended but welcome breath of fresh air for the country's crowded and polluted cities. India is home to21 of the 30 worst polluted urban areas in the world, according to data compiled in IQAir AirVisual's 2019 World Air Quality Report, with six in the top ten.
Only essential services have been operational, including water, electricity, health and fire services, groceries stores and municipal services. All other shops, commercial establishments, factories, workshops, offices, markets and places of worship have been closed and interstate buses and metros were be suspended.
